Before we begin…some things to note:
WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET. ENJOY IT. FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE. IT COULD LAST DAYS…IT COULD LAST YEARS. WE DON’T KNOW.
Our positions are doing extremely well and we will continue to milk this market. 🐄 I’ll let you know if I start to see signals of another downturn like back in November and December.
Sometimes I get asked why I forecast or try to predict future events. I honestly don’t know…its a sickness. My college thesis was “Predicting Stock Market Movement With Multi-Variable Regression” 15 years ago. So you can say I’ve been doing this a long time. I tell you this, because the -80% stock market collapse is something I still standby.
Now my reasoning has always been based on economic and numerical justification. In this video, I give 10 reasons the stock market will collapse -80%. The “80%” is based on the volumetric base of the macro bull cycle price action. In November, December and January I made several bearish forecasts…not knowing if it was the “meltdown” or not…but was bearish regardless. After seeing some of the drops, it was clear it was NOT the meltdown. It wasn’t drastic enough to qualify. My speculations then was for price action to crash, then a strong rebound into the blowoff top.
Fast forward to today, and those forecasts and predictions are holding relatively accurate. Naturally, many want another chart derived from my magic crystal ball 🔮. I envision the future S&P 500 chart to look something like the below….a continued strong rally, most certainly not a time to be a bear unless you want your liquidation badge of honor 📛. Take it with a grain of salt, for fun. We follow price action day to day. However, it is what I think.
Now even though we have tons of evidence to support a massive downward collapse…the part I didn’t know was the “WHY”. You can have utterly terrible economic conditions…yet markets go up. For example, millions were unemployed and small businesses were shut down in the COVID pandemic….yet the stock market was having a party upwards! We needed a catalyst…a black-swan event (which is unpredictable in itself). I never knew the “when” or the “why”. And before you ask: “So why do you make those posts?” Answer: The people in 1927 would have loved a heads up in 1929. Though I imagine anyone making those predictions in 1927 would likely have gotten spit on, just like I often do on TikTok.
I recently came across this YouTube channel “Predictive History”. His video from May 2024, recently went semi-viral, with 1.3M views. As a creator, I’d say this is still not widely known. Now, get your mind oriented for May of 2024…you are sitting in his class. At that point in time, if you had heard “Trump will be president”…"Trump will get a 3rd term”… “The U.S. will be baited to drop bombs on Iran”…you would have sat their dumbfounded at the predictions…thinking the guy was a clown show 🤡. Fast forward to today…and personally I consider him a genius. He has a plethora of accurate predictions, some of which are WILD for May 2024.
When you have an hour of time on your hands…maybe a long drive, or you are doing some mundane task to listen in, I recommend listing to his class “Geo-Strategy #8: The Iran Trap”. I’ll confess, its not the most exhilarating content of your life, but worth a listen. He has made some recent updates as well. Particularly he discusses the advancement of WW3; the “mission creep” of how we send troops to Iran and how we even advance to civil war. Civil war is not how you imagine it from history books…but more so constant pop-ups across America.
The primary point being: considering his incredibly accurate "predictive history”…I do hold his future predictions as relevant in the back of my mind. And what better catalyst for a -80% drop than WW3 and Civil War within the United States?!
Again, I reiterate, do not sprint to sell off positions (NFA, you do you). Enjoy your weekend as if nothing is going on, to maintain sanity. 👉 We are in a bull market! 👈 So many people only look at their stocks and see only a line going up…those are the same people who consistently get caught in massive market downturns. It’s why we consistently see, even long term investors, returning to the workforce in droves. I cannot tell you how many people I have seen…THOUSANDS…who make a huge profit, only to lose it all…because of their “positivity bias”. Consider the NEGATIVE elements in our world, their potential impact, and protect yourself…for whenever they may happen.
For more: Chat with Timothy | Investing for Beginners | Current Stock Positions | Daily Stock Screener | All Publications
Subscribers get direct access with me Monday to Friday during market hours in the chat, stock reviews and access to the Stock Screener. Subscribe Now.
Share this post