👋 Welcome to StockTok! This is a public review of how my posts have been aging and future market thoughts. I do my utmost to remain accountable to all of you everyday, maintaining a Current Stock Positions so that we ALL know exactly how my stock picks are performing. Overall…from my perspective, the posts have been aging relatively well. Haven’t had to go an delete any videos lol (I’m joking 😂).
A subscriber asked:
Is the blow off top coming?
What might be the catalyst?
And what is your allocation to the markets? Let’s address all three!
Is The Blowoff Top Coming?
My speculation: Yes. Dozens of charts are showing classic volatility contraction patterns. Many of our positions have done well capitalizing on those structures. The S&P 500 has clearly had a V-shaped recovery. The VIX is trending downwards, even on bad news. We had a threat of WW3 just yesterday, and the market gobbled up the sell off.
What Might Be The Catalyst?
Full disclosure…I do not have a crystal ball. But my speculations have been the inverse of everyone. Notice how negative news…which has been in an abundance for several months now, the market just does not care anymore. We dropped bombs on Iran yesterday, and the market spiked upwards. My personal opinion (and leave a comment if you think other wise!) is that:
Markets will 📈 climb 📈 from the FEAR of WW3 AND the hopes of a Federal Interest Rate cut.
The catalyst for the 📉 meltdown 📉 will be WW3 actually kicking off, and rate cuts actually occurring. Both become sell the news events.
Again…my opinion…but I do think this war will escalate. The United States just got directly involved. by dropping massive bombs and destroying billions of dollars of infrastructure. Iran is allies (or strategic alliances) with China, Russia, North Korea…all countries we have extremely tense relations with. Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria, the last two are also countries tied to Iran…most of those countries do not like the U.S. either. So it is very easy for me to envision a major escalation. A tweet on Truth Social calling for a ceasefire…does NOT make it so…those countries are pissed.
What is your allocation to the markets?
To be clear: There is not many technical indications to NOT be in the market. We entered a bull market on June 9th. By definition, we should be in the markets.
BUT I AM A HUMAN BEING. I AM A SPECULATOR. I AM A FORECASTOR.
I am approximately 76% invested in various tickers.
A dose of honest talk from me: If I wasn’t a FinTok influencer or a leader of this Substack….I probably wouldn’t be in the market at all. I did really well in 2023 and 2024…I don’t need the money and I don’t really like the volatility we have experienced. In fact…I am trying to learn myself to be OUT of the market more…something all of the greatest traders do. The difficulty is higher than in prior years. Yet: everyday people ask me “what to buy next”, and thus, I must put my money where my mouth is, an entire article on the recent 4 longer term positions I picked up.
My speculation is for a blow off top: something that will be incredibly difficult to exit appropriately. And then for a meltdown, a massive drop in the markets that follows a meltup: something we talked about heavily in 2022 and 2023. We have in fact had a meltup…no questioning it now.
Again, this is just me and my speculative predictions. Sometimes people get an illusion of a person on social media: I guarantee you, I am a normal person with thoughts and emotions just like you on the other side of the screen.
How Has Timothy’s Posts Been Aging?
Overall…I think we have done pretty damn good. My portfolio equity is showing green for the year, and I think most people are showing the same in the group. Most of the positions we hold are in the green…the best being Roblox RBLX 0.00%↑ up over 38% . The worst trades of the year would be QS 0.00%↑ …a stock I broke rules on. WNS 0.00%↑ has been a nuisance…but I continue to hold. SPOT 0.00%↑ and DASH 0.00%↑ are recent picks performing well. AFRM 0.00%↑ is rocketing up for the day. So…was I perfect? Absolutely not. But, again, my perspective, we’ve done well.
One of the most common disconnects I see, is TIMEFRAME REFERENCE. If you are ever confused about the timeframe I am speaking of: ASK! I am always available in the chat during market hours. To one person, a stock may look great (we will use AMD as example). To another, it may look terrible. Come to find out, person A was looking at the 4hr, and person B was looking at the weekly.
Timeline of StockTok’s posts:
2022 - 2023: Stock market would melt up.
March 2024: Stock market was doing fine, trending well. Took a 6 month break from making content.
November 2024: Reappeared to issues S&P 500 warnings and NVDA warnings. There were macro signals presenting red flags.
December 2024: Exited the market fully. Provided a bearish forecast: was uncertain whether meltdown or standard market pullback.
January - March 2025: Several posts stating I DID NOT think this was the “meltdown”. The drops were not big enough. It was not necessarily time to invest…because trend was down, and we did not know where the bottom was.
April 2025 - Officially, by definition, entered a bear market.
June 9th 2025 - Officially, by definition, entered a bull market. Don’t get mad at me for the whiplash…I don’t control the markets. But this is when we started getting more aggressive with picking up a few more positions.
June 24th, 2025: My speculation remains for a blow off top. Then a meltdown. BUT PRICE ACTION IS ALWAYS KING. You may recall the video I posted about volatility…contraction and expansion phases getting wider and wider. They operate like ocean waves. January to March was a contraction phase, where the market was going down. Now we are in an expansion phase: where I expect the expansion to be even more dramatic (blow off top)….then another contraction phase…far more extreme than the bear market we just experienced (meltdown).
When? No idea…let price action and signals dictate the “when” and then we will respond appropriately on those dates and times. Until then…we are in a relatively decent, bullish market: SO ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS!
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/06/23/iran-allies-list-us/84315925007/
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