Market Will Go Up...Guaranteed
This 1 variable always sends the market up, and it starts TODAY
Before we dive into the markets, be aware that I am going on vacation to Costa Rica later today, and will return April 7th. That vacation is exactly why the markets will go up LOLâŚthe market ALWAYS goes up when I go on vacation. If you are new to my page, there are even a handful of people in the community that literally bet on this. đThat said, please note, the title is absolutely bait. Figured we could start with a laugh!
We have done literally nothing since February 12th. I have been asked a few times what % cash I am: roughly ~80% cash. The ~20% is in long term holdings, many of the positions from the StockTok ETF. This basket of stocks has held up incredibly well the last nearly 2 months, and is still in the green. Could we have sold it in FebruaryâŚsure. But that is not the point of a âlong termâ portfolio and I am not chasing 8% gains. Some months, are going to have drawdowns. Just apart of the process. I still fully expect these positions to do well, by the end of 2026 into 2027. We are not in a bear market right now.
Now lets get into some âwhat ifâ scenarios. These âwhat-ifâ scenarios are to prepare you while I am gone. I am planning on a full digital detox (you should do these on occasion as well, it does wonders for your mind, which in turn, helps your portfolio over the long haul). If you did not see my latest article, I discuss what conditions must be met to begin investing/trading again. Recall, we have 2 primary goals here:
Make money.
Protect money.
Protect money comes in the forms of stop utilization, âcut pricesâ and by simply sitting out of the market in less than ideal conditions. Think about all the âbuy the dipâ people from a month agoâŚ.wrecked. As Iâve said several times, its better to be bored, than it is to lose money.
The 3 requirements to resume investing again were:
VIX drops below 21 and holds. This is a personal rule of mine. It indicates an easier, more predictable market.
The S&P 500 must breakout and regain lost ground. I reiterate, we are not in a bear marketâŚwe avoid weakness in price action so we do not get trapped in terrible positions, in case it does transition into a bear market.
A sector âpopsâ. Remember when AI took off a few years ago? That was a good sign. Iâm talking huge runsâŚseveral stocks in a sector are up 10%-30% in a single day. This is a good signal that there will be several bullish sector rotations later.
I do not care if the money printer comes onâŚ.or if the Federal Reserve declares 0% interest ratesâŚor a golden meteor lands on Wall Street. If those 3 requirements are not met: I WILL NOT INVEST. đ Price action is King đ. You have seen so many narratives (particularly with oil lately)âŚand those narratives are not reflecting in the price action. So many retail traders followed narratives and were caught in the oil retail trapâŚnot to boast or sound egotisticalâŚbut I put out a Warning about oil for a reason.
So here a few top âwhat ifâ scenarios that I have seen between the media and investors lately, and note this is a hodge-podge of my thoughts:
What if the U.S. uses a Nuclear weapon on Iran?
Certainly possible. Canât say it wonât happen. And full disclosure, I am fully cognizant how bad this soundsâŚbut I view that as bullish for the markets. I have made several videos about how unconventional warfare, from countries like Iran, was Americaâs Achilles heel (scroll my military content if you are unaware). But a nuclear weapon is the only way I personally see America âwinningâ (at the cost of all ethics, moral and religious standing globally). We have already pretty much lost all of our ally support.12345 Thus, nuclear is the only fast âresolution. The reason I say it is bullish, at least short term, because then investors will actually view America as the âwinnerââŚagain, assuming it doesnât become global nuclear warfare and remains regional.
Its also pretty normal, historically, that at the start of a war, the U.S. stock market goes down. However when speculators globally, speculate that the U.S. will win (even if we are only a little bit into the war at the time) the market recovers. A nuclear weapon, especially with the size of the U.S. arsenal, I could see it being bullish.
Again, I emphasize, I do not support any of this. But these are real situations we must talk about, and I am giving cold hearted view points on the chain reaction in relation to the markets. Feelings to the side. Donât shoot the messenger.
What if Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. takes control of the Strait?
I think the percent chance of this happening sits around 0%, at least for the next 2 weeks (while I am away). As a prior Naval Officer that specialized in Underwater warfare, including mine-warfare and submarines, the U.S. will not take control of those straits AND get shipping through. Recall, how many mines does it take to stop commercial shipping? Answer: 0. The threat of mines alone will prevent multi-million and billion dollar ships from transiting. Too much at stake to gamble with. And those straits are Iranâs #1 leverage point economically. Iâd love to be wrong about it, but I foresee the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for weeks, possibly months or worst case, years. But if by some miracle they became open again, I would speculate that to be pretty bullish. Until that point though, this is a thought on every investorâs mind, big and small, and remains a bearish variable.
Next 2 sections I will talk about:
What if Oil goes above $100? or $110? How to trade oilâŚ
What about leader stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta?
Those will be for subscribers. If you choose to subscribe, welcome! Normally I am available in the chat during market hours and read & respond to every comment or questions I am tagged in. I also have a StockTok screener that has continuously produced monster stocks. Up to you, either way, thanks for stopping by!
Oh, and please like â¤ď¸ and re-stack this post; its the only way we can combat AI slop!